Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 22.303643 23.634541 25.041938 26.647714 28.437377 30.380427 32.662858
2026-01-25 20.059700 21.863509 23.867733 26.282989 29.146954 32.477437 36.709639
2026-02-01 18.606672 20.623138 22.931919 25.811532 29.367449 33.701616 39.530984
2026-02-08 17.195297 19.275333 21.706041 24.811204 28.758480 33.739477 40.737123
2026-02-15 16.764210 19.031208 21.742253 25.302522 29.986059 36.150799 45.301419
2026-02-22 16.296895 18.695784 21.620554 25.553217 30.884149 38.173298 49.567268
2026-03-01 15.491836 17.889767 20.849363 24.889664 30.475100 38.309670 51.003169
2026-03-08 14.346671 16.605436 19.405224 23.247845 28.597263 36.170158 48.602338
2026-03-15 14.019651 16.341368 19.257267 23.326079 29.115748 37.555095 52.014418
2026-03-22 13.760878 16.149116 19.187165 23.496164 29.763497 39.176687 56.050044
2026-03-29 13.417783 15.831054 18.932215 23.388626 29.986967 40.146577 59.076402
2026-04-05 13.236291 15.714792 18.937837 23.641738 30.757448 42.052792 64.156901
2026-04-12 12.901288 15.435256 18.779250 23.755504 31.492220 44.274014 71.023507
2026-04-19 12.424526 14.953474 18.329252 23.430414 31.537640 45.380187 76.078104
2026-04-26 11.976182 14.485727 17.867984 23.045965 31.432863 46.175356 80.657976
2026-05-03 11.423207 13.853081 17.144637 22.218818 30.521851 45.350719 81.092633
2026-05-10 11.291845 13.792323 17.227221 22.625420 31.716441 48.714011 93.563335
2026-05-17 11.111008 13.653221 17.186858 22.832446 32.581420 51.576064 106.241808
2026-05-24 10.727980 13.216022 16.691680 22.283871 32.046049 51.416512 109.454696
2026-05-31 10.133466 12.465367 15.713519 20.918427 29.947572 47.674722 99.553647
2026-06-07 9.970398 12.320524 15.623498 20.983757 30.467119 49.718612 110.486013
2026-06-14 9.837753 12.213533 15.583626 21.125697 31.137331 52.212977 124.807294
2026-06-21 9.651268 12.023059 15.410473 21.035969 31.358768 53.704841 136.351286